10 DATA FINDINGS: SHOULD TRUDEAU STAY OR RESIGN?
Kyla Ronellenfitsch
The Liberals’ polling numbers are bad, and have been for months. There’s been much discussion of whether Justin Trudeau might resign before the next election and if he should. This is a critical question. Staying or going are both risks. Trudeau carries a lot of baggage but he’s also a talented campaigner. Selecting a new leader provides the party with an opportunity for a fresh narrative and point of contrast. But Pierre Poilievre isn’t an easy opponent and it’s unclear if anyone has the chops to take him on. This study injects some hard data into this risk assessment.
The Trudeau Liberals are in deep trouble and the budget hasn’t helped. Just 14% of Canadians say that the budget improved their impression of the Trudeau government.
Trudeau is a drag for the party. 1 in 5 Canadians have a favourable impression of him while 62% have an unfavourable opinion of him. These negative perceptions are driven by belief that he has poor judgment, is arrogant, unethical, dangerous, and condescending.
Poilievre looks good as a contrast to Justin Trudeau, but not necessarily in isolation. He is polarizing - meaning that there are relatively equal numbers of people with very favourable (23%) and very unfavourable (25%) views of him. Among those who like him, he’s believed to be smart, hard-working, qualified, possessing family values, well-intentioned, and caring about people like you. Those who dislike Poilievre most commonly find him to be arrogant, dangerous, and risky.
One of the big bets the Trudeau Liberals are making is that eventually voters will see that Pierre Poilievre and his politics are distasteful and dangerous. 42% agree that Poilievre represents a scary kind of politics. This isn’t a great position for a leader that hasn’t yet been through the scrutiny of a campaign. But when contrasted with Trudeau, he’s perceived as the less scary of the two options. 6 in 10 Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau represents a scary kind of politics, including 42% who strongly agree with this idea.
38% of Canadians would consider voting Liberal today. This number increases by 14-pts when voters are asked about their likelihood of voting Liberal if the party was led by someone other than Justin Trudeau.
When thinking about a prospective Liberal leader, voters prioritize someone with distance from Trudeau, although there’s equal division within the pool of persuadable Liberal voters on if this person should be more economic or social policy-focused.
The appeal of eight potential leadership candidates, Anita Anand, Mark Carney, François-Philippe Champagne, Sean Fraser, Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly, Dominic LeBlanc and Marc Miller, was tested. With the exception of Chrystia Freeland, prospective leadership candidates are not well known.
Chrystia Freeland faces challenging cross-winds. She’s the preferred candidate among the Liberal base, but also has considerable negatives among the general public.
Mark Carney is the expansive candidate. He’s preferred by those who would only consider voting Liberal without Trudeau. He also tests well among the base, but not as good as Freeland.
In this hypothetical exercise, Freeland and Carney are front-runners, but barely. Mélanie Joly, Anita Anand, François-Philippe Champagne, and Sean Fraser also test well and have their own pockets of support. Dominic LeBlanc and Marc Miller test less well.
Methodology
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This survey was conducted online in English and French from April 28-May 9, 2024. A nationally representative sample of n=1555 Canadians completed the survey. The data was weighted to census parameters for region, gender, age, and past voting behaviour. For a representative sample, the margin of error would be +/-3%.
The topline results for each question are included here and the data visuals used during The Herle Burly podcast are here.
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Kyla Ronellenfitsch - Kyla Ronellenfitsch is a pollster and data scientist with over a decade of experience conducting research in Canada and the United States. She is the founder of Relay Strategies, a full-service polling firm based in Ottawa. She began her career at the Gandalf Group, where she led the research program for the Ontario Liberal Party during the 2018 provincial election campaign. For the past few years, Kyla has divided her time between Canada and the US. She was previously the Lead Pollster for Change Research's non-partisan unit and currently consults on their thought leadership and product development.
The views expressed belong to the author.
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