THE SMART MONEY’S ON DONALD TRUMP (TO CHEAT)

Keith Boag

This fraught summer has produced America’s hairiest pre-election season since 1968. At the close of that summer, after its soul-destroying assassinations, racial unrest and Lyndon Johnson’s continuing escalation of the Vietnam war, many Democrats left their Chicago convention deeply disappointed, and in some cases bloodied by the heavy-handed way in which their new presidential nominee, Vice-President Hubert Humphrey, had been foisted on them.

This year, by contrast, Democrats departed Chicago with cries of “hope”, “joy” and “when we fight, we win!” ringing in their ears. Almost none of them complained that their nominee, Vice-President Kamala Harris, was foisted on them. Even though they never had a clear chance to choose her, they embraced her as though they had. 

But the manner of Harris’s nomination might haunt them yet.

For one thing, if she loses in November, there will be a re-assessment of whether President Joe Biden’s decision to give up his office was really as selfless as it’s currently portrayed. History might yet blame him for not bowing out sooner to allow time for a real competition for his job.

Much more important is Donald Trump's assertion, without irony, that Harris taking over from Biden amounts to a coup, and so her candidacy for the White House is illegitimate. The danger of that lie hardening into fact is that it encourages more of the MAGA extremists to respond with violence.

There is an urgent need for this to be seen for what it is: Alongside other recent Trump claims— that Harris is using AI technology to fabricate huge crowds of supporters (no evidence) that Trump is leading in the polls everywhere (he isn’t) — the mischaracterization of Harris's nomination as a coup is another flashing red light that Trump intends to contest the results of the election if Harris wins. We should be clear-eyed about what that means.

Cheating is a reflex for Trump. It’s where his mind goes the minute he sees opportunity. In the same way that gamblers are always either making money or losing money, Trump’s worldview is that, if he's not cheating someone, then someone’s cheating him. He’s elevated that to the twisted canon that all of his bad behavior is forced on him by his victims. A rationalization familiar to those who’ve experienced malignant narcissism.

In a little more than three weeks Trump will be sentenced for crimes related to his first known attempt to cheat in a presidential election.

Although that prosecution has been trivialized as merely a hush money case related to Trump’s activities with an adult film actress, the correct view is that it’s the origin story for Trump’s persistent criminality as a political man.  The evidence presented in court shows that among Trump’s highest priorities after launching his 2015 bid for the White House was to cheat. Shortly after he descended on that golden escalator at Trump Tower to announce he was in the 2016 race, he met with a tight group of his keystone cronies to figure out how they’d chisel their way to victory.  The scheme they came up with led to secret, illegal campaign contributions, then to a criminal cover-up managed from the Oval Office, and finally to Trump’s 34 felony convictions.

In 2020 his cheating habits expanded to the White House, which became the center of a multi-pronged attack through the courts, through intimidation, and ultimately through violent insurrection, for the purpose of disenfranchising tens of millions of people by invalidating their votes and overturning the election results.

So having crossed the threshold from campaign finance crimes to violent insurrection, what’s next?

Trump has absurdly claimed that he “took a bullet for democracy” in Pennsylvania this summer when his ear was nicked by a rifle shot from a would-be assassin. The shooting seems to have been the impulsive act of a disturbed young man, but Trump’s framing of the moment instructs his supporters to see it as something more ominous: a shot fired in the battle for the soul of the country, a battle that will culminate with the November 5th election. Again, it’s a mobilizing tactic, just as, “If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore!” was a mobilizing tactic on January 6th.

Similarly, his promise to pardon the January 6th insurrectionists should be seen as a promise to future insurrectionists, too.

This year, Trump won’t have the advantages of incumbency that he tried to use after the 2020 election. He won’t have a security apparatus he can deploy or withhold as he chooses, depending on his needs in the event of violence. The final certification of the election results will be in the hands of a Democrat this time — Vice-President Harris — invulnerable to pressure from him.

But MAGA Republicans have been busy. It’s possible to identify the tactics they’re developing without knowing exactly the strategy they have in mind.

For instance, in 2020 the Republican National Committee largely distanced itself from Trump’s attempts to overturn that election, but now the RNC and its resources have been absorbed into the Trump campaign. The RNC co-chair is his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump. It’s widely reported that RNC staff have been screened to ensure they believe the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from them. The RNC can funnel money into legal challenges to the certification of a vote against Trump in November.

The RNC also has what they call an election integrity project. Its chair is Christina Bobb, a lawyer who has been indicted for her role in the Arizona fake electors scheme to overturn the 2020 election results.

In the battleground state of Georgia, two of five members on the Fulton County election board are MAGA. Earlier this year they challenged the Republican primary results in their county, even though Trump won handily. Why?

Their purpose seems to have been to challenge the process as a way to capture more control of it. They have now won a new right to investigate future votes, meaning they can intervene to slow down the certification of elections in their county and by extension delay certification for the presidential election in their state and perhaps, ultimately, for the whole country. 

It’s likely similar things are happening in other battleground states.

Delay is among Trump’s favorite tactics. He has deployed it most effectively this year in the criminal cases against him and seems to have succeeded in pushing three out of four of those past the November election date. The beauty of delay tactics is that, while they don’t require a strategic purpose, they create time for one to develop.

And if Trump faces the courts in future over the election, he can take comfort from their sympathy toward him in the recent past. Sadly, the courts are not a reliable defense for democracy at this moment.

Unlike in 1968, Democrats can feel the wind at their backs. Polls show new paths to the White House opening before them. Victory seems within reach. But let’s not forget who they’re dealing with in Donald Trump. It’s not even September yet and Democrats have miles to go before they sleep. Miles to go.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Keith Boag - The US presidential ticket is set: Trump + Vance versus Harris + Waltz. And to cover that election, we're bringing our readers and listeners a brilliant journalistic mind and political correspondent legend, Keith Boag! Keith was with the CBC for more than 30 years, including as Chief Political Correspondent. His career included work for many years in Washington, D.C., and as Ottawa Bureau Chief. Keith covered seven federal elections in Canada, ten party leadership campaigns, as well as several US elections. Keith will regularly offer his written analysis via "QUOTES" at Air Quotes Media.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Air Quotes Media. Read more opinion contributions via QUOTES from Air Quotes Media.