KAMALA HARRIS: UNDERDOG
Keith Boag
To those for whom this Labour Day weekend is merely a dividing line between the final “lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer” and the crisp coolness and colour of the fall ahead, congratulations, you are the lucky ones! To those for whom this was a summer of sweaty palms and jangled nerves, whose sleep-deprived and bloodshot eyes were fixed on the election south of the border and who remain stressed out by its plot twists, poll shifts and supercilious Trumpian ridiculousness, you know that Labour Day is traditionally the beginning of even more of all that, right?
This final leg of the election cycle might yet prove that the defining moment of the campaign was that Sunday in July when President Joe Biden tweeted his way out of the race and handed the reins to Vice President Kamala Harris, so she could then romp to victory in November.
Indeed there is a rompish feeling in the air after Democrats pulled some dazzling moves over the last several weeks: Harris’s choice of running-mate Tim Walz was a winner, and their Chicago convention was a celebration of joy that showcased some of the best oratory in politics today. They do indeed have a deep bench and soaring confidence.
A rompish feeling in the air, though, does not always elect a president. As we head into the home stretch, the race for the White House remains a toss-up. Harris has surged forward to catch up to the former president, Donald Trump, and even edge past him in some national opinion surveys. But it’s in the Electoral College that the presidency is decided.
The presumption in 2024 is that the Electoral College will continue to have a Republican bias. That means that the current pattern of red voters spread wide, and blue voters stacked high, across the fifty states favours Republicans and allows them to win the Electoral College even if they lose the national popular vote by a lot—as happened in 2016 when Hillary Clinton lost to Trump even though millions more Americans voted for her.
It’s also assumed that — for the third election in a row — Trump will not win the popular vote.
According to the election forecaster Nate Silver — who, alone in his field, gave Trump a serious chance of winning in 2016 — Harris needs to win the popular vote in November by 2-3 points to have a decent chance (54%) of winning the Electoral College. Two to three points is a significant margin, but a 54% probability of winning is a nail-biter.
Among other headwinds that Harris faces is the majority of voters who still see Trump as the best choice to handle the issues that are most important to them: the economy and the border. Harris has argued, correctly, that the economy has improved significantly on the Biden/Harris watch and that it was Trump who killed a bipartisan deal to fix the border. But those arguments don’t seem to be landing with the voters she needs.
And then there is the peculiar gift that has allowed Trump to insult almost every part of his coalition and get away with it: He’s a convicted felon, but has the law and order Republicans with him; he calls soldiers “suckers” and “losers”, many veterans call him a “patriot”; he philanders, lies, and is plainly unfamiliar with the Bible — New or Old Testaments — nor respectful of its 10 Commandments, yet most evangelicals love him.
At the moment Trump is busy betraying his supporters in the anti-abortion movement — who seem genuinely surprised by this—and speaking against Florida’s six-week abortion ban, claiming it’s too strict. He’s also promising that in vitro fertilisation, which many on the anti-abortion side consider immoral, would not only be legal under a Trump administration, but free. Once they recover from their shock and horror, expect them to move smoothly into the forgiveness stage.
The list of things that would disqualify anyone else from holding public office — any public office — goes on and on, but every item seems priced-in by his followers as the reasonable cost of having their hero back in the White House.
One wonders whether Trump is ever privately astonished by the grifts his people open their wallets for: The “God Bless the USA” Bibles ($59.99), his “Trump action figure” digital trading cards, including one of him dancing, ($99.99), and the chopped up bits of cloth he claims come from the suit he wore for his indictment in Georgia — which go to those who buy 47 of the digital trading cards ($99.99 x 47 = $4699.53!).
On the other hand, voters are still sizing up Harris. She has time to disappoint — put a foot wrong here or there, lose the honeymoon glow of earlier days — and there will be opportunities galore for that. But will there be the forgiveness and understanding that Trump gets?
On the event horizon for both presidential candidates is the debate, September 10th, followed soon after by the sentencing of the one who’s also a convicted felon.
The finicky electorate let it be known through opinion surveys this year that it was maxed out on chicken or fish, old or older, Biden or Trump, and wanted a better choice. Now that they have their better choice, it’s hard to believe it’s still a tough one for many of them. But apparently it is.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Keith Boag - The US presidential ticket is set: Trump + Vance versus Harris + Waltz. And to cover that election, we're bringing our readers and listeners a brilliant journalistic mind and political correspondent legend, Keith Boag! Keith was with the CBC for more than 30 years, including as Chief Political Correspondent. His career included work for many years in Washington, D.C., and as Ottawa Bureau Chief. Keith covered seven federal elections in Canada, ten party leadership campaigns, as well as several US elections. Keith will regularly offer his written analysis via "QUOTES" at Air Quotes Media.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Air Quotes Media. Read more opinion contributions via QUOTES from Air Quotes Media.